Posts Tagged 'fxa'

News Flash: Europe is Slowing; News Flash: China is Slowing

March 22, 2012

News Flash: China is Slowing

News Flash: Europe is Slowing

News Flash: Goldilocks May Have Left the Building

“There is the school of thought, of which I am not a student, that believes we shouldn’t worry about China and Europe since U.S. GDP is not overly reliant upon either Europe, 2% of total U.S. GDP, or China, 0.6% of GDP, but given that our economic revival is not particularly robust, any potential hit to growth has to be regarded seriously.   And it is the strengthening domestic economy, abetted by perhaps misplaced optimism on the global economy that overshadows the current weakness abroad.”

Like most, I tend to operate from selective memory. Sometimes I have to venture far into the archives to find a pearl of wisdom, other times the proverbial ink has yet to dry. Fortunately, this occasion finds me in the latter camp leading to a trip back to March 6th.  I actually present this somewhat cheekily since the S&P has had a nice move since the date I wrote the above but completing the thought, I remained bullish equities within a much reduced net long position laboring under the belief the non-US swoon would not really hit our economy until year end.  That is still the case from an economic standpoint.  It shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone that the massive credit issues in Europe have caused a slowdown nor should anyone be surprised about China, where economic indicators have revealed a contracting economy for 4 months.  However, with the market being a discounting mechanism perhaps I was too optimistic.  I went on to say:

“To bottom line it, the market is in a consolidation phase and faces the likelihood of a minor correction near term while remaining highly dependent upon data in the U.S. and continued optimism about the European and Chinese economies.” 

This will update my outlook and clarify my views.  The market is in a consolidation phase with a slight bias to the downside in the very near term as we are in a good news vacuum pending earnings.  Optimism still reigns regarding China’s ability to manage their way out of their declining economic fortunes and the yields on sovereign debt in the countries that matter, while recently forfeiting some of their optimism, are still at much more reasonable levels.   THE KEY FACTOR GOING FORWARD WILL NOW BE EARNINGS SEASON which I suspect will acquit itself well in most areas of the economy except for certain sectors, such as coal and steel, where I have been very visibly short, and which have already updated their outlook.   (Every steel company, regardless of business model, has disappointed but has guided to a turn in fundamentals resulting in a nice move off the bottom.  I am still short.  And coal remains in a death spiral.)   This will provide support for the market at that juncture but for now, in a good news vacuum, the path of least resistance is slightly lower.

But the key to a further rise in equities is the direction of US govt bonds.  While flows continue into bond funds in a meaningful way and out of equities in a less meaningful manner, a situation that surprises me, I believe this will reverse. I am short through TBF and TBT because I believe most investors have come to expect unabated and unprecedented performance and don’t realize that a an 85 bps back-up in yield from 2.15% to 3% will result in approximately a 7% loss in capital, an untenable risk/reward when considering that any appreciation of Treasuries is in the best case, severely limited.   And as the EU sovereigns continue to hold these levels, funds will flow from bunds and bonds into their higher yielding debt.

Within the slowing of global growth view, I remain short the Euro and Aussie dollar, materials and transportation, CSX (dicey), and long technology, big US banks, and defensive value.  The market will continue to pause, but not collapse, into earnings season and unlike each of the other reporting periods since the bottom in March 2009, expectations are much lower setting up for decent equity performance for the next quarter unless sentiment regarding Europe and China fall off a cliff.  I realize this straddle risks my being likened to a sell-side strategist, a label more feared than “moderate Republican” but that’s how I see it.

 

The Market: New Year’s Resolutions Are Made To Be Broken; More Positive On US Equities

The Market: New Year’s Resolutions Are Made To Be Broken

 

I sat back and marveled at the action in the global markets on Tuesday, wondering if these non-human entities had all of a sudden turned human making New Year’s resolutions to ignore underlying fundamentals and rally 2% a day. But guess what, markets don’t drunkenly warble Auld Lang Syne in symbolic banishment of times gone.  There is no Lord of the Calendar presiding over the indices, ripping the pages of 2011 from the binding, erasing the memory of an ailing global economy, resetting expectations to a level of attainability where economic indicators such as Eurozone PMI indicating a contracting economy are now a positive indicator.  In fact, the only symbolic symmetry I can find is in the economic hangover rattling the brains of money managers finance ministers and newly crowned technocrats the world over.

 

So as January rolls around we are still faced with the same positives and negatives, each release of data driving the markets, each tick of the currency market correlated to the price of commodities and equities.  But here’s THE but: I am more attracted to US equities than I was in 2011.  That is my resolution for the New Year BUT unlike those who resolve to lose significant weight in 2012, my complete transformation won’t happen in one day although it should endure past the next buffet – I mean, rally.

 

Yesterday’s Unicredit rights offering was not a positive sign for the markets.  The 27 investment banks underwriting the offering reportedly accounted for three-quarters of demand for the $9.8 billion offering, a high price to pay for a call option on future fees and one which toxifies (literary alert: new word) their balance sheets in the name of fees and, no doubt, in response to arm twisting by the ECB.  Shareholders were diluted to near zero and the deal was underwater from the first tick.   Can’t imagine there is much appetite for these types of deals going forward as it will swell “bad” assets at the banks involved, somewhat ironically I might add.

 

I still believe that we will see nationalization or partial nationalization of some banks.  The reason is simple: as with Unicredit, their problem loans and refinancing needs exceed their market caps.  Additionally, compliance with Basil standards has led to these banks pulling in credit lines, the most immediate response, which has stifled credit and slowed economic growth.  This, of course, is why the ECB has initiated their lending program.  I surmise that Draghi has had conversations with the banks taking advantage of this lending facility to participate in the new issue market.

 

Next week is critical as Italy and Spain come to market seeking capital from charitable buyers.  European debt is actually not a bad play if you can hold it longer term because it is extremely unlikely that either country will default.  However, I’m not playing and believe the price they have to pay to fund themselves will be extraordinarily high and for Italy this is only the beginning of their refunding.

 

All of this comes down to the fact that there is still no plan to “cure” the credit crisis in Europe, absent austerity measures that will likely not be enforced or enacted to the necessary magnitude and will only be effective in continuing to drive the EU economy into recession.  It is a lose-lose situation.  The loan facility has removed fears of a Lehman type moment but that is not nearly enough.  We still need to see the heavy artillery from the EU in the form of stimulus.  For example, Italy has had one of the slowest growing economies over the last 20 years of all OECD nations.  They can’t cut their way to growth.  I look at the banks continuing to park funds overnight with the ECB at record levels as insider trading: they know their market better than sell-side analysts or pundits and if they are willing to take such an imbalance in rates of return in exchange for the safety of the ECB, the problems are as bad as I imagine them to be.

 

But China will save us all!  No they won’t; they will look out for themselves and prey on the markets as they always have.  They see commodity prices declining so they will not enter the markets and be the support mechanism until they are down to their last copper penny.   China is on the bad end of two phenomenon:  its property bubble bursting and its primary end market’s  – the Eurozone – declining economy. Their trade surplus declined from $180 billion in 2010 to $160 billion 2011, numbers that any other nation would be happy with but not the Chinese.  This is positive for the US but may be a short lived victory as they dropped the value of the yuan this morning, a reversal of prior policy and a move that will undoubtedly flame already tense relations with the US.  This is a strong indication that the Chinese are very, and justifiably, concerned about their economy markedly slowing despite the recent PMI release.  This slowing will, of course, hit the global economy but especially Australia which is why I am short the Aussie dollar, albeit small for now.  Additionally, the property market in Australia is in horrendous shape and significantly hurting their banks and populous.  They have to lower rates, further pressuring the currency.

 

Now here is the good news as I see it and it resides squarely with the U.S. market and as a devout patriot, I couldn’t be happier.  The US treasury and stock markets are the global default markets of choice. Despite 2011 4Q negative pre-announcements hitting a high previously seen during two prior recessions in 2001 and 2008, the economic data is getting better.   Today’s jobless claims number continues to trend downward, which I believe is a function of a smaller sampling and companies having already cut through muscle so perhaps not an indication of a vastly improving employment picture but positive nonetheless.   Corporate earnings lag the improvement in the economy as companies ultimately respond by hiring more workers.  However, I do see earnings estimates continuing to decline, particularly multinationals from the combination of weaker export markets and a stronger USD.  Analysts are too optimistic in their S&P estimates for 2012.

 

So I remain relatively lightly position in equities, short the Euro against the dollar and short the AUD.  The U.S. equity markets will continue to react to the worsening situation in the EU and have a tough time rising near term.  However, asset allocation to equities, which I expected to see last year and perhaps we did to an extent, will ultimately drive equities higher so I don’t mind increasing my exposure opportunistically.

 

My preference is in defensive, domestically focused companies including healthcare, specifically managed care, nat gas, well-positioned retail, MLPs, utilities, US telecom and strong brands such as SBUX.  Some of my specific holdings are: CHK (CEO continues to pay down debt and restructure production toward liquids from nat gas as he said he would), WLP (inexpensive, buying back significant stock, defensive), NS (7.5% yld, insider buying), QCOM (market leader), GM (cheap but not in love with name), KO (yield, defensive but currency issues), EUO, short FXA.  Would not mind being short LNKD, GRPN, NFLX and ZNGA. This earnings season will be marked by currency adjustments and caution about Europe so I will mostly stay away from those companies playing in those areas.

 

Meanwhile, with some stability returning to the political scene in the US and Romney moving to the forefront, any sense of his emerging victorious in November will finally motivate US companies to spend the massive cash hoard on their balance sheet.  This is not an immediate event, however.

 

So there you have it. Nothing much has changed, the focus required to write 20”12” instead of 2011 really the only thing new.  I get the hang of that relatively quickly, usually after writing about 5 checks and filling out a few forms.  The markets however, have not changed their ways at all, renouncing their resolutions after a mere two days.

 

In sum, I am more positively disposed to the markets and have slightly increased exposure but want to get a better glimpse of the earnings season and the critical refunding periods for European debt before getting longer.

European Sovereign Debt Crisis Survey – What Is/Was Discounted In The Markets

In my view, the most important issue facing the markets is the European sovereign debt crisis. This issue is the breeding ground for so many other factors facing the global economy being that the EU collectively represents perhaps the most significant trading partner for China and the U.S. With this in mind, last Friday, I sent out a survey containing 5 simple questions to a small portion of my contact list with the intent of gauging what sophisticated, institutional investors believe the market is telling us about resolution of the crisis. Admittedly, the sampling was small in terms of respondents but the dollars under management significant. I supplemented the written survey with  conversations soliciting responses to the same questions. Fortunately, not one of my friends added me to their Do Not Call List. Now, in full disclosure, I am not a graduate of Quinnipiac University nor a former employee of Harris Polling, but this did not stop me from understanding the clear message of the data. The overwhelming majority of the respondents believe that the market is discounting the most positive scenario and that if this were not delivered, albeit with a time frame for compliance of 3 to 6 months, that the indices would hit new lows. Giving credence to this view is the fact that the recent rally in the S&P began contemporaneously with the Sarkozy and Merkel speech wherein they stated that they have a meeting of the minds regarding what needs to be done to stem the crisis. November 3rd was the drop dead date they offered for presenting a unified plan although recent chatter and an increased sense of urgency has served to have brought the date for resolution closer by a week.

Today, this changed, as Germany threw cold water on a shock and awe solution resulting in a 2% decline in the S&P. It would not be inappropriate to argue that the market went from an oversold to overbought and today’s action was normal consolidation but I disagree. Now, in fairness, I applaud the Germans for reining in expectations that became much too optimistic. I had, in fact, pointed out in prior notes that the news flow would create peaks and valleys in the averages along the road to November 3rd. Today was the first valley but I feel there will be more to come. I also mentioned late last week (Have We Seen The Future: The European Solution…  October 13th) that I had taken off some long exposure and right now I have no interest in revisiting my strategy. That was the right move and I further reduced my net long exposure early in today’s trading session.

I hope the Europeans continue to reset expectations but even if they do, it will only forestall the inevitable because I do not see shock and awe coming anytime soon. I remain cautious on the market overall and continue to see the Euro short as a compelling investment.


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