Am I Bearish – Part II: Very Much Not – For Now

As I detailed in my post from 10/21, the resolution to the European sovereign debt crisis has played out according to what I had anticipated.  Merkel had sufficiently lowered expectations to allow for a plan the market would embrace.  U.S. corporate earnings are benefiting from the same mechanism: beating lowered expectations.  With bearishness so high, as expressed in cash not just sentiment, the market was spring coiled for a pretty strong move higher.   I had raised the prospect of a knee jerk sell on the news, always need an “out,” but that was not my high probability case and I did say I would have added on that momentary decline.  I dont’ expect same reaction in US markets as we had in Europe.  Asia type pop is more likely today.

But that is just for today, we will go up by 10-15% from here.  How do I get to my upside: market basically flat on the year despite S&P earnings up approximately 15% this year and forecast up 13% next year.   So we’re behind by that 15%, at least.

So where are we now?  Europe is in a recession and it will deepen.   In order for the banks to get to 9% Tier 1 ratios, they will begin by pulling in credit lines, removing that portion of  their liabilities.   This will lead to a further stifling of credit. Austerity measures will further crimp spending.

But most importantly we face the overhang of the details.  But at this point there is no reason not to believe that the EU will work out sufficient details to support the plan.  Maybe Washington can take a lesson on getting a plan to the finish line from the 17 EU currency countries. Nonetheless the trend of the market is higher. I am still sticking with high quality defensive stocks for the most part: WLP, KO.   After today, junk will still be junk and quality, still quality.  NFLX still overvalued, RIMM, despite all its problems, still cheaper than NFLX.  At least they are making money during an all out assault on their business model.  Hold sold most of NIHD before release given high expectations and big run but will buy tight here, down 14%.

Am I Still Bearish? Sort of Not

I have had very light equity exposure for an extended period of time with periods of being net short to being fairly long. Fortunately, with the indices having been range bound, the opportunity cost has been insignificant. As I mentioned in a prior note being bearish is exhausting, lonely and counter to my natural optimism (although I do admit to always maintaining a healthy dose of cynicism). Imagine taking your child to see 101 Dalmatians and loudly rooting for Cruella deVille to come out on top. Your kid shrinks away to another seat on the other side of the theater while others shun you. That’s how bears are treated.

I continually second guess my investment thesis, trying to see what the other side sees. I weigh the inputs underlying my stance, marking them to market. I try to remove the bias of my position as I seek additional data that is either supportive or unsupportive of my position. And of course, there is always the fear of acting from emotion that prompts a change in thinking, a feeling that you weren’t invited to the party, of being left out. And most of all, there is that greatest fear of all, of having reversed course at absolutely the wrong time. And in full disclosure, I have not always made the turn in a very timely fashion. I did well in 2008 but hardly made any money in 2009. Although I was still ahead of the game, it still didn’t feel good missing out on a ripping bull market move.

So where am I now? I am warming up to the market. Why? Well, I have often said I have seen this movie before and it ended badly but maybe there will be a different ending to this installment because everyone else had also seen the prequel to the 2011 financial crisis. My ending has banks struggling to raise capital, some, like Dexia or perhaps Greece, going belly up, credit continuing to tighten, economies contracting – the culmination of all these fears and others I haven’t listed causing a massive wave of selling. But guess what? Merkel and Sarkozy and the more responsible members of the G-20 and EU were also around in 2008 and they have no interest in revisiting that scenario. Granted they have waited too long and the cost of delay has ratcheted up the price of a cure. Germany and France have the most to lose by not putting forth a viable solution. While expectations for a total and complete solution are still high, they have been ratcheted down enough to be attainable, or near attainable with the promise to be completely resolved in the next 3 to 6 months. Shock and awe is not in the cards and everyone knows it. But will they give us enough to put a floor under the market and cause under invested funds to chase performance? I think so.

Swimming upstream, against the tide of bullishness that is the unwavering stance by the vast majority of pundits and market participants is difficult enough but imagine the flood gates being opened and the water gushing at you as you flutter kick your portfolio like a foam kickboard. The world is awash in liquidity. It all comes down to not fighting the Fed. But the much maligned U.S. Fed has recruited a legion of Central Bankers to fight the battle: the EU, IMF and China. This is a massive liquidity push by every printing press on the planet. So for now, I am entering into surrender negotiations and further increasing my exposure further.

I am by no means becoming fully invested for I still have that evil twin whispering in my ear. The global economy is in terrible shape but what do I know that others don’t? I don’t have an edge on China – it’s a property bubble that has already begun to leak – but the Chief Communist (as opposed to Chief Economist) knows that. I think that will end ugly but they can throw enough money at it in the interim to allow the S&P to rise to 1250, a random number, while their market declines. Europe is in recession but that thinking is convention and is nothing that $1.3 trillion can’t cure.

The most alpha will likely be generated through commodities and materials – the most economically sensitive investments – but I can’t go all that way in. There is too much risk in case I am wrong. I do like the fertilizer companies for the long term and although recovering, they have been beaten worse than a Middle Eastern dictator. I still prefer the more boring fundamentally, bottoms up investments epitomized by MDRX, KO, QCOM, WLP, NIHD. My risk is in bottom fishing on HPQ and, dare I admit it, RIMM. I cut back my Euro short against the dollar but will rebuild that position again at some point.

How long the cure lasts is what keeps a lid on my exposure. At some point austerity leads to slower growth and U.S. economic policy is non-existent as Washington remains rudderless. Everyone believes China will bail out every local government, corporate and individual spectators but I don’t. After all, they are communists and not prone to providing handouts to failing billionaires or local governments who have repeatedly disobeyed central government directives. There will be some pain to teach them a lesson.

I won’t be discouraged if there is a sell on the news mentality once the EU deal is announced. And I am rooting for another delay in the announcement because that means they are still arguing – eh, negotiating. And I expect leaks from the negotiations to cause some volatility. We should continue to move higher, perhaps rally 20% before going lower, likely hitting prior lows.

Whoops, there I go again.

European Sovereign Debt Crisis Survey – What Is/Was Discounted In The Markets

In my view, the most important issue facing the markets is the European sovereign debt crisis. This issue is the breeding ground for so many other factors facing the global economy being that the EU collectively represents perhaps the most significant trading partner for China and the U.S. With this in mind, last Friday, I sent out a survey containing 5 simple questions to a small portion of my contact list with the intent of gauging what sophisticated, institutional investors believe the market is telling us about resolution of the crisis. Admittedly, the sampling was small in terms of respondents but the dollars under management significant. I supplemented the written survey with  conversations soliciting responses to the same questions. Fortunately, not one of my friends added me to their Do Not Call List. Now, in full disclosure, I am not a graduate of Quinnipiac University nor a former employee of Harris Polling, but this did not stop me from understanding the clear message of the data. The overwhelming majority of the respondents believe that the market is discounting the most positive scenario and that if this were not delivered, albeit with a time frame for compliance of 3 to 6 months, that the indices would hit new lows. Giving credence to this view is the fact that the recent rally in the S&P began contemporaneously with the Sarkozy and Merkel speech wherein they stated that they have a meeting of the minds regarding what needs to be done to stem the crisis. November 3rd was the drop dead date they offered for presenting a unified plan although recent chatter and an increased sense of urgency has served to have brought the date for resolution closer by a week.

Today, this changed, as Germany threw cold water on a shock and awe solution resulting in a 2% decline in the S&P. It would not be inappropriate to argue that the market went from an oversold to overbought and today’s action was normal consolidation but I disagree. Now, in fairness, I applaud the Germans for reining in expectations that became much too optimistic. I had, in fact, pointed out in prior notes that the news flow would create peaks and valleys in the averages along the road to November 3rd. Today was the first valley but I feel there will be more to come. I also mentioned late last week (Have We Seen The Future: The European Solution…  October 13th) that I had taken off some long exposure and right now I have no interest in revisiting my strategy. That was the right move and I further reduced my net long exposure early in today’s trading session.

I hope the Europeans continue to reset expectations but even if they do, it will only forestall the inevitable because I do not see shock and awe coming anytime soon. I remain cautious on the market overall and continue to see the Euro short as a compelling investment.

Have We Seen The Future: The European Solution/ China Slowing?

Being bearish is so exhausting.  I felt so lonely; every day reading analyst research reports increasing estimates, strategists targeting S&P 1300 – it was getting to me. And then the endless articles about the negative feedback loop, castigating those who dared voice a jaded view on the economy.  Much like those kindergarten girls who I coached in soccer many years ago, I thought every broad based comment was directed at me.  I needed a break.  I decided it wouldn’t be that difficult to change my outlook since I tend to be more optimistic than pessimistic. I find life much easier that way and with my golf game if I focused on the negative, if I only looked at the blemishes, I would be a really bad tennis player instead of a decent golfer (caution: literary license at work). I looked for an opening, a sign of what could go right.  Europe was the biggest near term issue and I decided to put myself in the Germans’ shoes. I took off my Tod’s, after all, they are a sign of profligate Italian spending, and figuratively put on a pair of Jackboots. I channeled Merkel and decided that the German motivation for holding the Euro together was stronger than the Greek’s desire to derail it.  After all, given that Germany is one of the strongest economies in the world with trade surpluses only recently surpassed by China, if they were to have their own currency it would decimate their export economy.  Germany needs weak partners in the Euro so that their machine tools and cars look cheap to the rest of the world. 

 

I took off all my short exposure, primarily index shorts, beginning of last week, which of course, took my long exposure higher. I added to this by increasing my holdings in some core holdings including KO, QCOM and WLP, and picked up a bargain in NIHD. I started to pare back exposure yesterday, first at a leisurely pace, only to see the news about the potential framework of the European bank recapitalization erase about a third of yesterday’s gains. The news wasn’t a surprise to me; I had written that I had expected bumps in the road to EU resolution from “leaks” and dissension to occur before we reached the moment of resolution. Slovakia didn’t scare me; their decision was an easy one – either return to using live cattle and goats as a currency or approve the ESFS.  For the Slovakian politicians, with 50% of their trade into the EU, it is only a question of how many new Mercedes and Volkswagens they could wring out of the Germans.  My reason for cutting back exposure was fairly simple which is that the market move higher was, in my view, entirely due to Sarkozy and Merkel guaranteeing a “deal” by November 3^rd.  For bulls, the European debt crisis had been the governor on the market, holding it back from much higher levels, believing that corporate earnings remain robust and that China is not slowing.  But has the market been too generous in taking Merkozy at their word when they have arguably done little to earn it.  And, by the by, the EU isn’t only about France and Germany.   

 

So what is the market assuming?  My best guess is that equity investors assume a shock and awe plan which would entail:  massive liquidity injections into the economy whether in the form of a TARP like plan or some other mechanism: continued buying of sovereign bonds; capital injections into banks and backstopping future equity holders accompanied by massive dilution to existing shareholders; and either Greece defaults in a controlled manner, with a one time alimony payment, or a write-down of its debt to believable levels.  SIGN ME UP.  Actually I did sign up as I noted above.  Instead what we got yesterday was the hint that the banks may be given a period of time to raise their Tier 1 capital ratio to 9%.  They are a number of ways to do this: sell equity which they have said they don’t need thus limiting the appeal of doing so at 50% of book (I choose not to believe those numbers); convert debt to equity; or cut credit lines which, of course, has the impact of improving the balance sheet. If this were to be the plan, we saw the future yesterday in terms of US equity market reaction and today, in the sell-off of the European markets.  It wasn’t good.  But even assuming the markets go for this plan either because optimists win the day or because the market retreats thus lowering the hurdle rate what is acceptable, and the banks succeed in raising capital, there will be marked uncertainty during the period of capital raising and the eventual effect will be a slowing of growth as credit availability declines.  And this, of course, assumes that investors are as gullible in believing that Tier 1 capital is 9% as they were in believing the stress tests were accurate.  Bottom line, to quote that noted philosopher Michelle Bachmann “the devil is in the details.” 

 

The other issues of course are what a Greek default would do to the markets and the potential for a downgrade of French debt.  The best news for France is just like in WWII, they were on the sidelines while we fought the battle.  As the US came through virtually unscathed so will the French.  As to a Greek default, the result is more up in the air. Most equity investors I believe assume that any default would be accompanied by ring fencing the debt of Spain and Italy and this would be positive.  Who needs ouzo when we have grappa? Of course, any significant haircut only worsens the bank’s balance sheets but that is assumed to be taken into account as well. What about a big haircut: well, the banks responded to that potential today much like Hercules did when faced with the same scenario. 

 

But wait! Here comes Mario Draghi to the rescue.  That’s like putting Bernie Madoff in charge of compliance.  Draghi knows how to spend it so he knows austerity from the other side.  He will undoubtedly cut rates at either his first, or more likely, second meeting.  By that time, European numbers will show recession and commodities will have declined to a level low enough to provide cover for a 50 BP cut. 

 

Unless the Troika comes forth with a plan of shock and awe that removes all doubt about further contagion, I see the market fading.  Even if the shock and awe doesn’t dazzle, the surrounding issues are becoming too prevalent to ignore. In my view, as evidenced by the trade numbers form China, the European economies are slowing significantly.  US earnings season has a decidedly different tone out of the gate then those of the past 6 or so quarters. And Washington is still a mess. Actually the bright spot from Washington is that I expect a partial ray of sunshine as the Republicans and Democrats come to common ground on some mechanism to create jobs. I would expect infrastructure spending and military put to work in some fashion but keep in mind that there is a decent lag to the passing of the bill and the actual spend.  I also believe that if Romney is able to break to the front of the pack convincingly, it might actually help matters in D.C. and bring Obama more to the center while also giving business leaders hope if Romney can take a strong lead in the polls over Obama.  However, with no votes being cast in any primaries just yet, this is way too soon to call.

 Is China’s export economy slowing or are they trying to fend off a trade war and pressure to let their currency rise by showing such poor numbers?  Depends if you believe their numbers or not.  I do in this case but only because it supports my investment thesis on China slowing. I’ll take what they give me.  Jawboning down economic activity further pressures commodity prices allowing them to stockpile inventories. 

 JPM:  if JPM can’t put up decent numbers with the strength of their franchise, then what does that say about the rest of the financials?  The regional brokers are in for a world of hurt. JPM is picking up share in IB and still down 31%.

 Although I disagree with what appears to be the overriding premise of the OWS movement which is the distribution of earned wealth to those who haven’t earned it such as community organizers (sorry that slipped.  After all, community organizers are the farm team for the Presidency), I do admire their ability to mount a globally coordinated effort.  In fact, I would like to see them share their insights with the EU and Washington in terms of how to accomplish a purpose, any purpose at this point. 

 I think RIMM’s moment of silence for the passing of Steve Job’s lasted a bit too long.

European Sovereign Debt Solution

The way I see it is if the Troika (EU, ECB, IMF) provide a different “minister” to speak with the media each day for the purpose of leaking out potential solutions, the Dax will be at 7000 and the S&P will hit 2000 before they have to come up with a plan that the markets may not like and that may not be a workable solution.  In fact, the credit markets may heal themselves in tandem with the equity markets moving higher.    Brilliant!!!

The European Sucker Play; US Stock Bargains; Apple

The most important real near term news coming out of Europe will be the ECB rate decision tomorrow. Trichet is bidding adieu at the end of October and this is his last opportunity to reverse the prior rate hike. Does he head to Hotel du Cap admitting a mistake or stick to his guns and allow Mario Draghi to cut, although he has previously said it isn’t necessary. Perhaps the economic releases this morning may spur the correct decision, in conjunction with recent declines in commodity prices. Eurozone services PMI fell to 48.8 from 51.5 according to Markit survey, first month since August 2009 below 50. In other releases, Germany was sub 50 as well, France barely above 50, Italy and Spain continue below 50 at very low levels of 45 but they are already in recession. My guess is that France and Germany experience contractions in economic growth as well.

More importantly, does the troika come up with a major bail out prior to Trichet leaving and before Draghi takes over. Not sure how many EU members want an Italian telling them they have to pony up vast sums to save Italy. Fox guarding the chicken coop? Not quite but this will ratchet up the opposition or lengthen the time to cure if Trichet doesn’t act first.

The Financial Times had the story that wasn’t a story. The following 2 lines squeezed the shorts, lit a fire under those with light exposure and gave us all something to talk about.

“There is an increasingly shared view that we need a concerted, co-ordinated approach in Europe while many of the elements are done in the member states,” Olli Rehn, European commissioner for economic affairs, told the Financial Times. “There is a sense of urgency among ministers and we need to move on.”

“Capital positions of European banks must be reinforced to provide additional safety margins and thus reduce uncertainty,” Mr Rehn said. “This should be regarded as an integral part of the EU’s comprehensive strategy to restore confidence and overcome the crisis.…”

Rehn’s statement was nothing more than an attempt to put a temporary halt to the market crisis, an admirable goal, but hopefully there is ultimately more substance behind it. With the public division in the EU about solutions, I fear any resolution will be a long time in coming. Even the ESFS is flawed with Italy and Spain committing to guarantees of 79 billion Euros and 52 billion Euros, respectively. And, of course, Greece has agreed to be on the hook for 12 billion. I feel better now.

So the market basically did a hosanna that it has dawned on the EU finance ministers that they have developed a sense of urgency and will act together. Truth is we don’t know that they will act together but ultimately there has to be a plan. Unfortunately, from where I sit, the plan won’t be good for anyone, particularly the banks. We need a flush of the credit markets with tremendous pain being visited on the private sector because the political will for government to bail out all troubled banks and PIIGS does not exist. The result would be to wipe out the equity of a number of French banks as we are seeing with Dexia, which was originally bailed out in 2008 by France and Belgium. Now here they go again. Public shareholders have twice suffered significant losses. Dexia is also a good example of contagion as the municipalities in the US that do business with Dexia will likely see their borrowing costs increase as a result. And this is a minor case of contagion; it will get worse (Plus the 2008 similarities continue with good bank/bad bank solutions that don’t work.)

My bet is that Greece defaults in a “controlled” manner (not sure that exists) with limited alimony payments from the EU as a going away gift. At the same time, Italian and Spanish debt issues are ring fenced, the French banks recapitalized after taking significant write downs which almost wipes out equity holders with new shares or debt being backstopped by Germany and France as the main players. France loses their AAA, which is past its sell-by date anyway. We will also see massive liquidity injected into the European financial system causing a further decline in the Euro.

I’m waiting for this event to increase my exposure. With the slowing in China, Europe and the U.S., I’m highly confident that I can get a better entry point and keep more hair from falling out.

AAPL – still a cheap stock and the issues are well discounted in the stock price. I’m not going to beat up on Street research – well yes I am. The Street clearly has no idea what is going on with the company. If they can’t get major product launches correct, how are they doing the more difficult task of forecasting. It took me a few days to get a number I was looking for which is what percentage of ipads sold are wifi only. I’m going with the only answer that I got which is 65 – 70%. This is interesting because much was made of the fact that the new Amazon product is only wifi. Well, at a $300 difference for a product with a great brand name and very good functionality, if I didn’t own an ipad, I would seriously consider the Kindle Fire. I know that the ipad has 425,000 apps and the Fire doesn’t, but frankly, I ran out of patience after putting the first 150,000 apps on my screen. My issue with AAPL is margins. With strong competitors like Amazon and Google (android) at lower price points, is yesterday’s pricing of the iphone 4 and 4S a harbinger of lower margins and more competition? Apple has never been one to price to competitors’ levels but shouldn’t hat have to change? Tim Cook noted that 92% of the Fortune 500 are testing ipads. The opportunities in the enterprise space are interesting but keep in mind that most likely this is demand push by Apple, a common sales technique which I am glad to see them employ. I’m sure there is reverse inquiry as well. I would also guess that corporate procurement execs are more concerned with costs in a challenging economic environment and agnostic as to which quality brand they purchase. The dominant corporate usage is also likely wifi since it will be on premises as ipads are not a good substitute for laptops. Nonetheless this is a great revenue opportunity particularly if it scales into other Apple products.

Finally, on the US. We’re still without a plan and the economic numbers continue to look punk, today’s non-mfg ISM the latest example. Freight stocks are moving higher despite yesterday’s IATA airfreight numbers remaining below seasonal trends indicating a slow economy. Asia and the US showed particularly poor.

Even though the market is oversold and will have bear market rallies, I remain on the sidelines for the most part but do like a few stocks.

Wellpoint’s valuation seems compelling at less than 9X 2011 EPS. Company guidance is in a tight range either side of $7.00. They just added $5 billion to their buyback, an astonishing 21% of the company. Management said it will be completed over several years but they just bought back $1.5 billion since announcing a $1.6 billion program in February. That was about 5%. Plus I’m getting an okay yield of 1.6%.

I also like KO. Not huge growth but very dependable, the risk to earnings from currency being discounted by recent downgrades from the Street. At a 12 P/E and 3% yield it provides good, lower beta market exposure. If market explodes higher, neither WLP or KO will lead the pack but I will participate in the upside with limited downside.

QCOM remains a core holding. Tim Cook is an engineer and over saw procurement so he’s definitely on board with QCOM as the relationship, started in earnest this year, has taken root on his watch. They own CDMA and are embedded in android as well as ipad and iphone. QCOM ahs also been very friendly to shareholders, often returning capital.

HPQ is also inexpensive, even with a haircut (all the rage in financial circles these days) to earnings. My primary concern management, including the BOD. Still wish Meg didn’t speak about making the quarter. Would rather have had her reset bar lower.

China: Not on Goldilocks World Tour; The Global Economy; Copper, Commodities Lower.

The best thing that can be said for China is Europe.  But the worst thing that can be said for copper is China.

Europe continues to dominate the headlines, the immediacy of their issues relegating China to the back pages of the business press and investors’ minds.  This puts China in a very tough position between rooting for the EU, their top trading partner, to quickly put their sovereign debt issues behind them, and hoping they stay front and center, keeping China’s significant woes off the front page.  I know what Confucius would advise but his teachings have gone by the wayside quicker than a Ferrari barreling down Nanjing Road in Shanghai.

The biggest issue with China of course is the property bubble.  This exists not just for housing but also for commercial construction.  Given restrictions on lending at the local government level and tightening measures imposed by the central government, property developers have had to engage in creative financing techniques to continue building buildings that reportedly have very high vacancy rates. The credit agencies have taken aim at the banks, who own the local government debt, believing that the liabilities are understated, $540 billion being the amount recently mentioned by Moody’s.  I’m going to wager that Moody’s stays true to its reputation for accuracy and has vastly understated the issue, which, given the lack of transparency and controls in China, is a safe bet.  But using this figure and putting it in perspective, it is almost equivalent to the size of China’s stimulus package post 2008 crisis.  Let’s see what happens when that large sum of money works in reverse, choking off the economy and triggering defaults. What is most troubling is how much of the Chinese economy is dependent on this bubble.  This quote from Bloomberg is alarming (http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-09-23/china-s-squeeze-on-property-market-nearing-tipping-point-.html).  “China Real Estate Information Corp., a Shanghai-based property information and consulting firm, estimates 40 percent of overall local government revenue came from land sales last year.”  And, the local government involvement doesn’t stop there as they set up Trust companies, often in partnership with developers, to fund development.

Of course, there are those that hang onto the vision of the central government acting like the mother of a rambunctious 4 year old who scraps his knee but mommy won’t kiss this boo-boo and make it all better.  Sure, some of the developers who are closest to the ministers remaining open to receiving another Rolex Daytona in exchange for favorable treatment will not suffer as much but I doubt the government will bail out all the banks and developers.  The WSJ had 3 articles, all appropriately yellow flags.  Interestingly, and to this point, one of the world’s and China’s largest banks may seek to raise another $11 billion from the capital markets to protect the balance sheet against increasing bad debts.  When have you ever seen one capital raise be enough?  Exactly, and not here either since this bank has already raised $20 billion over the past two years.

In the most recent survey of home property prices recorded by the statistics bureau, for the first time less than half of the 70 cities posted month on month gains although all cities showed an increase, also for the first time this year.  This is troubling since it indicates that despite Premier Wen’s desire to cool off the overheated market, local governments refuse to participate relying heavily on higher prices on land sales.

Suppose I’m wrong and the government is more magnanimous than I estimate, writing checks to everyone who has wagered on prices forever climbing?  The conclusion for copper won’t change since it will still take a long time to absorb the current building inventory.  Construction is estimated to be between 50-70% of China’s GDP.  That soaks up a lot of energy, copper, steel and construction equipment which all feed into the global economy.

Soft landing for China?  That’s not what the direction of their bank stocks and property development companies will tell you.  I doubt that Goldilocks, she of the “not too cold, not too hot, just right” school of optimism, will be including China on her world tour.  Besides, she has signed on for additional dates in Europe and theU.S.

As to the U.S. indices, China surprisingly doesn’t mean much for now until the tipping point becomes apparent to all and the fog from Europe burns off.  All that matters for now is the impendingU.S.earnings season and Europe.  While I expect the ESFS to be approved, I’m not so sure the political appetite exists for the shock and awe leveraged fund that is needed to put a floor on the market.  But opinions on the outcome are like ipads, everyone has one.

Netflix: Another Negative Datapoint – HULU/DISH

If the CNBC report is accurate and DISH has won the bidding war for HULU, then this is another negative data point for Netflix. Let’s recap recent news flow: 1) changing subscription terms alienating investors; 2) higher content costs; 3) STARZ termination; 4) missing subscriber targets; 5) DISH offering streaming from Blockbuster; and 6) DISH reported acquisition of HULU.
NFLX has had a virtual monopoly on subscription television and movie programming. This has ended with DISH stepping into the market from a position of strength. Now there is a competitor to drive up content costs in addition to the content providers potentially offering their own services. Furthermore, as I look at the disparity between the $1.4 billion offered by DISH and the reported $4 billion offered by Google, the difference tied to contract extensions on content, it tells me that content is worth more than the technology. Content always drives subscriber growth and the providers now intend to take advantage of their positioning versus arguably cut rate pricing during NFLX’s earlier years of existence. Not all that much is known about the deal Netflix cut with Dreamworks but the number that sticks in my mind is $30 million a picture. The question is whether or not each film will be worth $30 million to them or if the price of the content is adjustable. Besides, this does not kick in for 2 years so it won’t help them now. I am not short NFLX but am considering buying puts. i have tremendous respect for Reed Hastings but he is in a tough spot. Keep in mind that the information in this article is based on news reports and not a press release or 8-K from either company.

HPQ: Confessions of a First Time Buyer/Compelling Risk/Reward

Hewlett Packard is one of the most compelling stocks that I see on my monitor right now. I initiated a position on Friday and have added to it since. With all the talk about beaten down stocks, the fact is that most of these equities, including coal, steel, rails, etc., have retained their buy ratings, hardly the hallmark of complete capitulation of sentiment. With HPQ, however, I believe there are as many sell recommendations from the Street as Buy opinions, the rest being neutral (a rough observation). At approximately 5X EPS, even if I haircut the earnings forecast by 20%, a significant cut, I’m still looking at an inexpensive equity that is as unloved as Ahmadinejad would be if he joined my local synagogue. HPQ is a great way to participate in a market rally since the downside is limited and as those with cash look for easy entry into the market and potential value, HPQ has to pop up on their buy list. I don’t remember the last time I owned HPQ, if ever, so I have the advantage of a clear mind, not biased by buying into the prior value propositions that didn’t pan out. In fact, I don’t remember a stock ever being as hated as this one, not even RIMM (which I also recently bought), a great buy signal, particularly for contrarians.

Ray Lane did not acquit himself particularly well in the Faber interview on CNBC on Friday which only served to increase the negative sentiment, mine included, and I took that opportunity, after my knee jerk reaction, to enter a position believing that if I could feel that way toward an equity that I don’t even own, the bottom was reached. The most intriguing point coming out of the interview was Meg Whitman’s statement that her focus right now is on making the quarter, a bold statement given that the quarter is fairly far along. Hopefully she carefully though that comment through, otherwise she is wasting the first quarter of her tenure which is usually a kitchen sink, set expectations low event. If the quarter does now disappoint, I may have made a mistake, with no solace that it will be a lesser error in judgment than she made. But I’m willing to give the well-respected Whitman the benefit of the doubt; she deserves it.

I still believe the Board of Directors has to go en masse and that Whitman is not the optimum choice; that the BOD should have taken their time to search for someone with more experience in this sector of technology. At the very least it would have given the market more confidence in them and Whitman. Retailing is a different business than hardware and when Whitman left EBAY, the growth had already started to ebb, although she should be commended for her timing because the story may have in fact seen its best days.

HPQ is a compelling trade from a risk/reward standpoint. The tell is that most who read this article will shake their heads and quietly utter “been there, done that.”

HPQ: You Can Suffer Permanent Vision Impairment on This Wait and See Stock

David Faber’s excellent interview with Ray Lane on CNBC is a disaster for HPQ and gives great insight into why the Board of Directors should be replaced. To paraphrase Mr. Lane, ‘I have known Leo for years,’ And then, ‘I have been looking at replacing him for 3 months.’ So despite his familiarity with Leo, after only 6 months into his tenure, forgetting about the total time in of 9 months, the BOD decides they made a mistake. And now they bring in Meg Whitman because she knows the company so well. In fact, she has been involved with HPQ for less time than Leo. Whitman did a great job at EBAY but they are a retailer whereas HPQ is a commodity company in technology. Different skill sets are required. Derek Jeter may be a great shortstop but can’t pitch so don’t put him on the mound. What is most stark about this move by HPQ’s BOD is that they should have understood that the market lacks confidence in the comapny at every level and should have taken their time in searching for a new CEO with a skill set more in tune with their needs. A wait and see story has become a don’t wait because it will be a long time before you see any improvement. And, in my view, there is absolutely no chance of ORCL paying in excess of $50 billion for a faltering business. The entire Board of Directors should be replaced and Ray Lane should be the first to go.